Quantifying the costs of drought : new evidence from life satisfaction data

We estimate the cost of droughts by matching rainfall data with individual life satisfaction. Our context is Australia over the period 2001 to 2004, which included a particularly severe drought. Using fixed-effect models, we find that a drought in spring has a detrimental effect on life satisfaction equivalent to an annual reduction in income of A$18,000. This effect, however, is only found for individuals living in rural areas. Using our estimates, we calculate that the predicted doubling of the frequency of spring droughts will lead to the equivalent loss in life satisfaction of just over 1% of GDP annually.

A green drought : the challenge of mentoring for Australian accounting academics

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to expose the impact of the shortage of senior academics,particularly professors, in Australian accounting schools, to relate the way one school addressed this shortage through a mentoring scheme, and to challenge existing institutional arrangements.----------- Design/methodology/approach: This is a contextualised qualitative case study of a mentoring scheme conducted in an Australian accounting school. Data collected from semi-structured interviews, personal reflections and from Australian university web sites are interpreted theoretically using the metaphor of a “green drought”.---------- Findings: The mentoring scheme achieved some notable successes, but raised many issues and challenges. Mentoring is a multifaceted investment in vocational endeavour and intellectual infrastructure, which will not occur unless creative means are developed over the long term to overcome current and future shortages of academic mentors.---------- Research limitations/implications: This is a qualitative case study, which, therefore, limits its generalisability. However, its contextualisation enables insights to be applied to the wider academic environment. ----------Practical implications: In the Australian and global academic environment, as accounting professors retire in greater numbers, new and creative ways of mentoring will need to be devised. The challenge will be to address longer term issues of academic sustainability, and not just to focus on short-term academic outcomes.---------- Originality/value: A mentoring scheme based on a collegial networking model of mentoring is presented as a means of enhancing academic endeavour through a creative short-term solution to a shortage of accounting professors. The paper exemplifies the theorising power of metaphor in a qualitative study.

Assessment of flood-related recharge to alluvial aquifers of an irrigated catchment following extended drought conditions using 3D visualisation and environmental tracers, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, Australia.

The Lockyer Valley in southeast Queensland, Australia, hosts an economically significant alluvial aquifer system which has been impacted by prolonged drought conditions (~1997 to ~ 2009). Throughout this time, the system was under continued groundwater extraction, resulting in severe aquifer depletion. By 2008, much of the aquifer was at <30% of storage but some relief occurred with rains in early 2009. However, between December 2010 and January 2011, most of southeast Queensland experienced unprecedented flooding, which generated significant aquifer recharge. In order to understand the spatial and temporal controls of groundwater recharge in the alluvium, a detailed 3D lithological property model of gravels, sands and clays was developed using GOCAD software. The spatial distribution of recharge throughout the catchment was assessed using hydrograph data from about 400 groundwater observation wells screened at the base of the alluvium. Water levels from these bores were integrated into a catchment-wide 3D geological model using the 3D geological modelling software GOCAD; the model highlights the complexity of recharge mechanisms. To support this analysis, groundwater tracers (e.g. major and minor ions, stable isotopes, 3H and 14C) were used as independent verification. The use of these complementary methods has allowed the identification of zones where alluvial recharge primarily occurs from stream water during episodic flood events. However, the study also demonstrates that in some sections of the alluvium, rainfall recharge and discharge from the underlying basement into the alluvium are the primary recharge mechanisms of the alluvium. This is indicated by the absence of any response to the flood, as well as the observed old radiocarbon ages and distinct basement water chemistry signatures at these locations. Within the 3D geological model, integration of water chemistry and time-series displays of water level surfaces before and after the flood suggests that the spatial variations of the flood response in the alluvium are primarily controlled by the valley morphology and lithological variations within the alluvium. The integration of time-series of groundwater level surfaces in the 3D geological model also enables the quantification of the volumetric change of groundwater stored in the unconfined sections of this alluvial aquifer during drought and following flood events. The 3D representation and analysis of hydraulic and recharge information has considerable advantages over the traditional 2D approach. For example, while many studies focus on singular aspects of catchment dynamics and groundwater-surface water interactions, the 3D approach is capable of integrating multiple types of information (topography, geological, hydraulic, water chemistry and spatial) into a single representation which provides valuable insights into the major factors controlling aquifer processes.

Modelling resilience in a water supply system : contrasting conditions of drought and flood

This paper presents an approach to modelling the resilience of a generic (potable) water supply system. The system is contextualized as a meta-system consisting of three subsystems to represent the natural catchment, the water treatment plant and the water distribution infrastructure for urban use. An abstract mathematical model of the meta-system is disaggregated progressively to form a cascade of equations forming a relational matrix of models. This allows the investigation of commonly implicit relationships between various operational components within the meta system, the in-depth understanding of specific system components and influential factors and the incorporation of explicit disturbances to explore system behaviour. Consequently, this will facilitate long-term decision making to achieve sustainable solutions for issues such as, meeting a growing demand or managing supply-side influences in the meta-system under diverse water availability regimes. This approach is based on the hypothesis that the means to achieve resilient supply of water may be better managed by modelling the effects of changes at specific levels that have a direct or in some cases indirect impact on higher-order outcomes. Additionally, the proposed strategy allows the definition of approaches to combine disparate data sets to synthesise previously missing or incomplete higher-order information, a scientifically robust means to define and carry out meta-analyses using knowledge from diverse yet relatable disciplines relevant to different levels of the system and for enhancing the understanding of dependencies and inter-dependencies of variable factors at various levels across the meta-system. The proposed concept introduces an approach for modelling a complex infrastructure system as a meta system which consists of a combination of bio-ecological, technical and socio-technical subsystems.

Allelic variation at a single gene increases food value in a drought-tolerant staple cereal

The production of adequate agricultural outputs to support the growing human population places great demands on agriculture, especially in light of ever-greater restrictions on input resources. Sorghum is a drought-adapted cereal capable of reliable production where other cereals fail, and thus represents a good candidate to address food security as agricultural inputs of water and arable land grow scarce. A long-standing issue with sorghum grain is that it has an inherently lower digestibility. Here we show that a low-frequency allele type in the starch metabolic gene, pullulanase, is associated with increased digestibility, regardless of genotypic background. We also provide evidence that the beneficial allele type is not associated with deleterious pleiotropic effects in the modern field environment. We argue that increasing the digestibility of an adapted crop is a viable way forward towards addressing food security while maximizing water and land-use efficiency.

For farmers, drought not the most dangerous predator on the horizon

Lack of water can be the least of a farmer’s worries in times of drought. Predatory banks can be just as deadly to a farmer’s livelihood. Former Queensland farmer and grazier Lynton Freeman has become increasingly anxious about the financial tightrope being walked by Australian farmers as the record floods of 2011 have given way in only three years to savage drought. He fears for hundreds of family farmers at risk — not from lack of water, but from lack of knowledge in how to manage their businesses through the drought and keep their heads above the financial water that will threaten many before this drought breaks.

Multivariate statistical analysis of hydrochemical data to assess alluvial aquifer–stream connectivity during drought and flood : Cressbrook Creek, southeast Queensland, Australia

A catchment-scale multivariate statistical analysis of hydrochemistry enabled assessment of interactions between alluvial groundwater and Cressbrook Creek, an intermittent drainage system in southeast Queensland, Australia. Hierarchical cluster analyses and principal component analysis were applied to time-series data to evaluate the hydrochemical evolution of groundwater during periods of extreme drought and severe flooding. A simple three-dimensional geological model was developed to conceptualise the catchment morphology and the stratigraphic framework of the alluvium. The alluvium forms a two-layer system with a basal coarse-grained layer overlain by a clay-rich low-permeability unit. In the upper and middle catchment, alluvial groundwater is chemically similar to streamwater, particularly near the creek (reflected by high HCO3/Cl and K/Na ratios and low salinities), indicating a high degree of connectivity. In the lower catchment, groundwater is more saline with lower HCO3/Cl and K/Na ratios, notably during dry periods. Groundwater salinity substantially decreased following severe flooding in 2011, notably in the lower catchment, confirming that flooding is an important mechanism for both recharge and maintaining groundwater quality. The integrated approach used in this study enabled effective interpretation of hydrological processes and can be applied to a variety of hydrological settings to synthesise and evaluate large hydrochemical datasets.

Sustainable subdivisions – review of technologies for integrated water services

Water is a current major global, national and local issue. Historic drought and unprecedented restriction levels are now substantially influencing almost all Australia’s major cities. Residential design and adoption of appropriate technologies plays a key role in urban water efficiency. This project, the first of the CRC-CI Sustainable subdivisions program with a focus on water, explores the existing technologies available for sustainable suburbs.

The response to dryness in Australia

The drought Australia now faces is leading to shifts in the perception of the continent, of Australians and the world. The ideals of lush green landscapes are making way for landscape designs in which dryness is a quality of the design. On a map of the world, Australia is enormous, and seems empty because development is concentrated around its edges. Its heart must be red, in the cultural projections of the world from images of Uluru, 'the rock', set in a flat desert with no relief. Of course the country is not really all desert - surely? - with low shrubs pretty much throughout. Inhabitation seems to cling to the edges where teh continent feels microclimatic effects from the adjacent oceans and edging mountain ranges, which screen the population from the real state of the environment - dry, harsh, amazing and unique. Australia is rightly proud of this harsh difference from its edges, but prefers the harshness to be 'out there'. At the moment however, the country is pretty much universally in drought, and the contrast between green and brown, that it has celebrated, even built its identity around, is disappearing to become brown throughout. Without the browning of Australia, some areas, such as tropical Queensland, are having their designed public landscapes and gardens revealed as an elaborate mythology, a landscape fraud.

Groundwater flow model of the Logan river alluvial aquifer system Josephville, South East Queensland

The study focuses on an alluvial plain situated within a large meander of the Logan River at Josephville near Beaudesert which supports a factory that processes gelatine. The plant draws water from on site bores, as well as the Logan River, for its production processes and produces approximately 1.5 ML per day (Douglas Partners, 2004) of waste water containing high levels of dissolved ions. At present a series of treatment ponds are used to aerate the waste water reducing the level of organic matter; the water is then used to irrigate grazing land around the site. Within the study the hydrogeology is investigated, a conceptual groundwater model is produced and a numerical groundwater flow model is developed from this. On the site are several bores that access groundwater, plus a network of monitoring bores. Assessment of drilling logs shows the area is formed from a mixture of poorly sorted Quaternary alluvial sediments with a laterally continuous aquifer comprised of coarse sands and fine gravels that is in contact with the river. This aquifer occurs at a depth of between 11 and 15 metres and is overlain by a heterogeneous mixture of silts, sands and clays. The study investigates the degree of interaction between the river and the groundwater within the fluvially derived sediments for reasons of both environmental monitoring and sustainability of the potential local groundwater resource. A conceptual hydrogeological model of the site proposes two hydrostratigraphic units, a basal aquifer of coarse-grained materials overlain by a thick semi-confining unit of finer materials. From this, a two-layer groundwater flow model and hydraulic conductivity distribution was developed based on bore monitoring and rainfall data using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and PEST (Doherty, 2004) based on GMS 6.5 software (EMSI, 2008). A second model was also considered with the alluvium represented as a single hydrogeological unit. Both models were calibrated to steady state conditions and sensitivity analyses of the parameters has demonstrated that both models are very stable for changes in the range of ± 10% for all parameters and still reasonably stable for changes up to ± 20% with RMS errors in the model always less that 10%. The preferred two-layer model was found to give the more realistic representation of the site, where water level variations and the numerical modeling showed that the basal layer of coarse sands and fine gravels is hydraulically connected to the river and the upper layer comprising a poorly sorted mixture of silt-rich clays and sands of very low permeability limits infiltration from the surface to the lower layer. The paucity of historical data has limited the numerical modelling to a steady state one based on groundwater levels during a drought period and forecasts for varying hydrological conditions (e.g. short term as well as prolonged dry and wet conditions) cannot reasonably be made from such a model. If future modelling is to be undertaken it is necessary to establish a regular program of groundwater monitoring and maintain a long term database of water levels to enable a transient model to be developed at a later stage. This will require a valid monitoring network to be designed with additional bores required for adequate coverage of the hydrogeological conditions at the Josephville site. Further investigations would also be enhanced by undertaking pump testing to investigate hydrogeological properties in the aquifer.

Sustainable water provision : alternative strategy and sources in the era of climate change

As a result of rapid urbanisation, population growth, change in lifestyles, pollution and the impacts of climate change, water provision has become a critical challenge for planners and policy-makers. In the wake of increasingly difficult water provision and drought, the notion that freshwater is a finite and vulnerable resources is increasingly being realised. Many city administrations around the World are struggling to provide water security for their residents to maintain lifestyle and economic grouth. This paper review the glocalalternatives to current water sources, including that of desalination, water transfers, recycling, and integrated water management. A comparative study on alternative resources is undertaken and the results are discussed.